Keno Odds Calculator: Exact Hits, At Least Hits and No-Hit Risk
Calculate the chance of matching your Keno numbers in one draw. Choose classic 80/20, compact 40/10 or a custom format, then compare exact hits, at least that many hits and no matches. For a quick reference, the chart below lists the odds of matching all 1–10 picks.
Calculate Keno odds
Choose a game format, set your number of picks and enter the target hits. The tool calculates exact-hit probability, cumulative probability, no-hit risk and a full outcome table.
Load an example. Each button sets the format, picks and target, then calculates both exact and at-least odds. The hit threshold resets to 2.
Odds results
Default: 80 numbers / 20 drawn · 6 picked · target 3 hits.
Expected hits is the average over many draws, not a prediction for the next ticket.
Zero hits and no payout are different events: some games pay for matching none of your numbers. “Below threshold” only counts hits below the value you entered. For the chance of any payout, including 0-hit prizes or gaps between paying outcomes, use the paytable analyzer.
Keno odds chart: matching all 1–10 picks
In classic 80/20 Keno, matching all 3 picks has a probability of 1.387537%, or about 1 in 72.07. Matching all 10 is about 1 in 8.91 million. The table compares those events with a 40/10 draw.
| Match all picks | 80/20 probability | 80/20 odds | 40/10 probability | 40/10 odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 of 1 | 25.000000% | 1 in 4.00 | 25.000000% | 1 in 4.00 |
| 2 of 2 | 6.012658% | 1 in 16.63 | 5.769231% | 1 in 17.33 |
| 3 of 3 | 1.387537% | 1 in 72.07 | 1.214575% | 1 in 82.33 |
| 4 of 4 | 0.306339% | 1 in 326.44 | 0.229784% | 1 in 435.19 |
| 5 of 5 | 0.064492% | 1 in 1,550.57 | 0.038297% | 1 in 2,611.14 |
| 6 of 6 | 0.012898% | 1 in 7,752.84 | 0.005471% | 1 in 18,278.00 |
| 7 of 7 | 0.002440% | 1 in 40,979.31 | 0.000644% | 1 in 155,363.00 |
| 8 of 8 | 0.000435% | 1 in 230,114.61 | 0.000059% | 1 in 1,708,993.00 |
| 9 of 9 | 0.000072% | 1 in 1,380,687.65 | 0.000004% | 1 in 27,343,888.00 |
| 10 of 10 | 0.000011% | 1 in 8,911,711.18 | 0.000000117972% | 1 in 847,660,528.00 |
For partial matches such as 5 of 8 or 8 of 9, enter the full pick count and the target hits in the calculator. To find how much an outcome pays, use the payout charts for the relevant game.
Full hit distribution
This table shows every possible hit count for the selected format. The highlighted row is your exact target. Bars are scaled to the most likely outcome; use the percentage column for the actual probability.
| Hits | Exact probability | Exact odds | At least this many | Probability bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run the calculator to see the distribution. | ||||
Classic 80/20 vs crypto 40/10 odds
The comparison uses the same pick count and target in both formats.
Both formats draw exactly one quarter of the number pool, so each individual number has a 25% chance of appearing. Multiple-match probabilities differ because the draws are without replacement. For example, matching 3 of 3 is about 1 in 72.07 in 80/20 and 1 in 82.33 in 40/10.
| Format | Pool | Drawn | Exact target probability | At least target probability | Zero-hit risk | Expected hits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run the calculator to compare formats. | ||||||
Use this comparison as a probability check only. Real payout value still depends on the paytable, risk mode, maximum win cap and RTP of the specific game.
How to calculate Keno odds
Keno uses sampling without replacement: a number drawn in a round cannot be drawn again in that round. The hypergeometric formula gives the chance of exactly h matches:
P(H = h) = C(picks, h) × C(total − picks, drawn − h) / C(total, drawn)
C(n, k) counts the ways to choose k items from n, ignoring their order. The first term chooses the matched picks; the second chooses the remaining drawn numbers from those you did not pick. The denominator counts all possible draws.
Worked example: exactly 3 hits from 6 picks
For an 80-number pool and 20 drawn numbers:
C(6, 3) × C(74, 17) / C(80, 20) = 0.1298195475…
That is 12.981955%, or about 1 in 7.70. At least 3 hits also includes 4, 5 and 6 matches, bringing the probability to 16.158209%, or about 1 in 6.19.
Exact hits
Exactly 3 hits counts only 3 matches. Use this probability for one specific payout line, even when other outcomes also pay.
At least hits
At least 3 hits adds the probabilities of 3, 4 and every higher possible hit count. It equals the chance of any payout only if those are all the paying outcomes.
Zero hits
None of the picked numbers appear. For 10 picks in 80/20, this has a probability of 4.579070%, about 1 in 21.84. Whether it pays depends on the game.
Formula reference: hypergeometric distribution in the SciPy documentation. The chart above uses this model; it contains no operator-specific prize assumptions.
What does “1 in N” mean?
“1 in N” is the reciprocal of an event's probability: N = 1 ÷ P. It describes the average waiting time over repeated independent draws with the same settings. It does not say when the event will happen.
For example, an event with a 1% chance per draw has odds of 1 in 100. Across 100 independent draws, the chance of seeing it at least once is 1 − 0.99100, about 63.4%. A long miss streak does not make the next draw more likely to hit.
Use the risk calculator to examine repeated-draw probabilities. Use this page for the distribution of matches in one draw.
What changes the probability?
Pool and draw size
One chosen number appears with probability drawn ÷ total. Increasing the draw size with the pool fixed raises that probability. Equal draw ratios do not guarantee equal multiple-hit probabilities.
Number of picks
Expected matches equal picks × drawn ÷ total. Six picks average 1.5 matches in both standard formats, although the probabilities of individual outcomes differ.
The event you count
Exactly 8 of 9 is different from at least 8 of 9. In 80/20, their probabilities are 0.003259% and 0.003332% respectively, because the second event also includes 9 of 9.
For the same number of picks, one set of distinct numbers has the same hit probabilities as any other in a fair draw. Risk modes and payout multipliers affect rewards; they do not change the hit distribution unless the draw mechanics also change. Use the RTP calculator to compare full paytable returns.
Can previous results help you pick numbers?
In a fair independent draw, a number is no more likely to appear because it was absent in previous rounds. Choosing birthdays, patterns, hot numbers or random picks does not change the probability for a fixed pick count. This calculator measures the possible outcomes of a draw; it cannot reveal the next result.
Related Keno tools
Prize charts
Compare verified 1–10 Spot payout schedules and see which hit counts actually pay.
Payout calculator
Convert stake and multiplier into gross payout, net profit and break-even probability.
Paytable analyzer
Combine exact hit probabilities with actual multipliers to calculate RTP contribution.
RTP & house edge
Calculate theoretical return, house edge and expected value from a full payout table.
Risk calculator
Measure miss frequency, dry-streak probability and bankroll exposure.
Strategy guide
Use odds, paytables, RTP and risk to organize decisions without number-prediction myths.
Frequently asked questions
What are the odds of hitting all 10 numbers in Keno?
For 10 picks in classic 80/20 Keno, the chance of matching all 10 in one draw is about 1 in 8,911,711, or 0.0000112212%. In a 40/10 format, it is 1 in 847,660,528. These are the odds of matching all 10, not the odds of any prize.
What are the odds of hitting 5 out of 5?
In an 80/20 draw, matching all 5 picks has a probability of about 0.064492%, or 1 in 1,550.57. In a 40/10 draw, it is about 0.038297%, or 1 in 2,611.14.
What is the difference between exact odds and at-least odds?
Exact odds count one result. At-least odds include that result and every higher possible hit count. For 6 picks in 80/20 Keno, exactly 3 hits has a probability of about 12.981955%; at least 3 hits has a probability of about 16.158209%.
What are the odds of matching no numbers on a 10-spot ticket?
For 10 picks in an 80/20 draw, the probability of zero matches is about 4.579070%, or 1 in 21.84. Some paytables award a prize for this result, so zero matches do not always mean a losing ticket.
Are video Keno odds the same as classic Keno odds?
They are the same for matching numbers when the pool, draw size and pick count are identical. A video game that uses 80 numbers and draws 20 follows the 80/20 probabilities. Check the format before using the chart; payouts and bonus features can differ.
Does the paytable change the odds of hitting numbers?
The paytable changes payouts and RTP, not the chance of matching numbers when the draw rules stay the same. To calculate the chance of any payout, add the probabilities of all outcomes that pay in that specific table.
Can past Keno results improve the next pick?
Past results do not improve the next pick in a fair independent draw. Every set of distinct numbers has the same hit probabilities as any other set with the same number of picks.